{"_meta":{"title":"European Tech Sovereignty Stack","snapshot":"2026-08","note":"An opinionated, sourced snapshot of where Europe's technology stack is sovereign and where it depends on imported kit. Tiers and scores are editorial judgements, not vendor endorsements. See CONTRIBUTING.md for the rubric. Every node, edge and headline carries a public source."},"LAYERS":[{"key":"market","name":"Market, policy & governance","verdict":"Europe's strongest layer: it can now write demand, not just rules. The SEAL framework finally defines sovereignty silicon-to-operations."},{"key":"apps","name":"Applications & SaaS","verdict":"One crown jewel (SAP) and a credible open workplace stack. Everything else fights Microsoft/Google muscle memory."},{"key":"ai","name":"Data & AI platform","verdict":"Real model talent, thin compute and distribution. The win is regulated, multilingual, on-prem AI, not frontier scale."},{"key":"cloud","name":"Cloud & compute","verdict":"The most contested layer. EU-owned, EU-operated and ordinary hyperscaler are three different products sold under one word."},{"key":"dc","name":"Datacenter & connectivity","verdict":"Europe can build and run capacity, and now state-owns the factory (Bull). The binding constraint is increasingly megawatts, not racks, and the AI-compute inside still leans on imported silicon."},{"key":"systems","name":"Hardware & systems","verdict":"Bull is now French-State-owned and Europe's only supercomputer factory. The accelerators that matter are still mostly Nvidia."},{"key":"design","name":"Chip design & IP","verdict":"Several credible European design bets and ISA control via RISC-V: Europe can draw its own chips. The accelerator incumbent still owns the market they are drawing for."},{"key":"fab","name":"Fabrication & equipment","verdict":"Europe owns the chokepoint tool (ASML) but not the fabs: no leading-edge logic manufacturing on the continent. The hardest gap."}],"CARDS":[{"id":"thesis","layer":"market","tier":"eu","name":"The conversion gap","score":2,"tag":"Europe builds the shelf. It still needs the shopkeeper.","what":"Europe is good at launching programmes and naming consortia. Revenue shows up when a buyer can specify, test, procure, deploy and support a stack without running a research project first. The gap is productisation, not imagination.","maturity":"Thesis","weak":"The bottleneck is commercial stitching, not components.","axes":{"capability":null,"jurisdiction":null,"op_control":null,"substitutability":null},"axes_note":"Editorial meta-node: the map's own argument, not a capability. Axes not applicable."},{"id":"seal","layer":"market","tier":"eu","name":"SEAL / Cloud Sovereignty Framework","score":5,"tag":"The EU finally graded sovereignty silicon-to-operations.","what":"The Commission's Cloud Sovereignty Framework grades offers on Sovereign European Assurance Levels (SEAL 0-4) plus an overall sovereignty score across 8 weighted categories: supply chain carries 20%, the only place in any EU instrument where hardware provenance is weighted. April 2026: EUR 180M over six years, four contracts. SEAL-3 went to a partnership led by Post Telecom (with OVHcloud and CleverCloud), to STACKIT and to Scaleway; SEAL-2 to Proximus (with S3NS, Clarence, Mistral). No contract was awarded at SEAL-4: nobody has cleared the top bar.","maturity":"Live 2026","weak":"A procurement scoring scheme, not law. It defines the test; vendors still have to pass it. The Commission issued a clarification note (1 Jun 2026) and promised an updated framework from tender lessons, which was not published as of 25 Jul 2026. Detailed criteria are withheld under procurement rules.","axes":{"capability":"credible","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"european","substitutability":null},"axes_note":"Live Commission instrument with a first EUR 180M award (Apr 2026); substitutability is not meaningful for a rulebook."},{"id":"techpack","layer":"market","tier":"eu","name":"EU Tech Sovereignty Package","score":4,"tag":"CADA + Chips Act 2.0 + Open Source Strategy (Jun 2026).","what":"Presented 3 June 2026: a Cloud and AI Development Act (CADA), a demand-led Chips Act 2.0, an EU Open Source Strategy, and an energy/AI roadmap. Headline asks: ~EUR 120bn semiconductors, ~EUR 200bn datacentres by 2036, ~EUR 100bn cloud/AI, EUR 2bn open source.","maturity":"Proposed 2026","weak":"Proposals and money. Implementation and 'Buy European' teeth are unproven.","axes":{"capability":"emerging","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"european","substitutability":null},"axes_note":"Proposed 3 Jun 2026: exists on paper; headline sums not yet appropriated."},{"id":"factories","layer":"market","tier":"eu","name":"AI Factories & Gigafactories","score":4,"tag":"~19 AI Factories + 13 antennas; up to 5 Gigafactories.","what":"EuroHPC has selected ~19 AI Factories plus 13 antennas across the EU and partner states (incl. UK, Switzerland, Iceland). InvestAI adds a EUR 20bn fund for up to 5 AI Gigafactories (100k+ accelerators each); 77 proposals across 16 states, official call summer 2026.","maturity":"Rolling 2025-2028","weak":"The compute inside is overwhelmingly Nvidia. Access channel, not silicon sovereignty.","axes":{"capability":"credible","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"european","substitutability":null},"axes_note":"EU-run EuroHPC instrument; the accelerators it buys are overwhelmingly Nvidia (see import spine).","depends_on":["sys-dep"]},{"id":"eurostack","layer":"market","tier":"eu","name":"EuroStack initiative","score":3,"tag":"Caffarra's chips-to-cloud-to-apps blueprint.","what":"A coalition of academics, industrialists and MEPs (chaired by Cristina Caffarra) pushing a full independent European stack framed around capturing economic value, not just defensive security.","maturity":"Advocacy","weak":"Movement and manifesto, not yet budget lines.","axes":{"capability":"emerging","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"european","substitutability":null},"axes_note":"Advocacy coalition: movement and manifesto, not yet budget lines."},{"id":"certs","layer":"market","tier":"eu","name":"SecNumCloud / EUCS / rulebook","score":4,"tag":"ANSSI, ENISA, plus DMA, Data Act, NIS2, DORA, CRA, eIDAS2.","what":"France's SecNumCloud is the hard bar (S3NS qualified 3.2 in Dec 2025; a March 2026 decree forces sensitive central-admin data onto it). EUCS at ENISA still wrangles whether a sovereignty requirement survives. DMA/Data Act/NIS2/DORA/CRA and the eIDAS2 wallet are demand triggers.","maturity":"Mixed","weak":"EUCS sovereignty criteria keep getting watered down under lobbying.","axes":{"capability":"credible","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"european","substitutability":null},"axes_note":"SecNumCloud is a live hard bar (S3NS 3.2, Dec 2025); EUCS sovereignty criteria still contested."},{"id":"sap","layer":"apps","tier":"eu","name":"SAP","score":4,"tag":"The crown jewel. ERP for half the planet's big companies.","what":"Germany's SAP is Europe's one genuine enterprise-software giant: S/4HANA, Business AI (Joule), and RISE landing on sovereign clouds (S3NS H2 2026, Bleu, Delos). Investing up to EUR 300M in France for sovereign cloud + Business AI.","maturity":"Production","weak":"Increasingly runs RISE on hyperscaler infrastructure; sovereignty depends on which cloud underneath.","axes":{"capability":"proven","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"shared","substitutability":"hard"},"axes_note":"German SE; RISE increasingly lands on hyperscaler infrastructure, so operational control of the hosted service is shared (see depends_on).","depends_on":["hyperscalers"]},{"id":"dassault","layer":"apps","tier":"eu","name":"Dassault Systemes","score":4,"tag":"3DEXPERIENCE: the world runs its product design on it.","what":"French PLM/CAD leader (CATIA, SOLIDWORKS, 3DEXPERIENCE) embedded in aerospace, auto, defence and pharma. Quiet, deep European software sovereignty in industrial design and simulation.","maturity":"Production","weak":"SaaS push raises the same hosting-jurisdiction questions.","axes":{"capability":"proven","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"european","substitutability":"hard"},"axes_note":"French; PLM/CAD embedded in EU industry. SaaS hosting jurisdiction is the open flank."},{"id":"opendesk","layer":"apps","tier":"eu","name":"openDesk (ZenDiS)","score":5,"tag":"Germany's government-grade Microsoft-365 alternative.","what":"Assembled by ZenDiS from Nextcloud, Collabora, Open-Xchange, Thunderbird, Univention Nubus, OpenProject, Cryptpad and Jitsi/OpenTalk. Adopted by Schleswig-Holstein, the ICC, and now the German armed forces.","maturity":"Deploying","weak":"A government study found it is not yet a full Microsoft 365 replacement: UX parity and integration gaps remain.","axes":{"capability":"credible","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"european","substitutability":"swappable"},"axes_note":"Open-source and forkable by construction; deployed (SH, ICC, Bundeswehr) but a government study still finds M365 parity gaps."},{"id":"schleswig","layer":"apps","tier":"eu","name":"Schleswig-Holstein migration","score":5,"tag":"40,000 staff off Microsoft. The proof it can be done.","what":"By Oct 2025 the German state moved 40,000+ civil-servant accounts and 100M+ emails off Exchange/Outlook to Open-Xchange/Thunderbird, and 30,000 PCs from Windows/Office to Linux/LibreOffice; SharePoint to Nextcloud, Teams/Webex to Jitsi.","maturity":"Live","weak":"A 4M-citizen state, not a multinational. Scale and helpdesk load are the open questions.","axes":{"capability":"proven","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"european","substitutability":null},"axes_note":"A completed migration, not a vendor: the axes grade the proof, not a product."},{"id":"office","layer":"apps","tier":"eu","name":"LibreOffice / Nextcloud / OX","score":4,"tag":"The open office + groupware substitution layer.","what":"LibreOffice (Document Foundation), Nextcloud, Open-Xchange and Collabora are the buyable, forkable office/collab core. Nextcloud + IONOS are building a packaged 'Euro-Office'.","maturity":"Production","weak":"Format fidelity and ecosystem add-ons still lag Microsoft.","axes":{"capability":"proven","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"european","substitutability":"swappable"},"axes_note":"Open-source core with multiple European vendors behind it: forkable, substitutable by design."},{"id":"proton","layer":"apps","tier":"eu","name":"Proton / Tuta / Wire","score":4,"tag":"Secure mail, comms, identity.","what":"Proton (encrypted mail/drive/VPN), Tuta (Germany) and Wire (secure messaging) cover privacy-first comms. Strong end-to-end stories for sensitive collaboration.","maturity":"Production","weak":"Proton is Swiss, not EU; 'European' but outside the EU legal perimeter. Flag it.","axes":{"capability":"proven","jurisdiction":"mixed","op_control":"european","substitutability":"swappable"},"axes_note":"Swiss: European-owned but outside the EU legal perimeter (the legend's own nuance); Tuta (DE) is the in-EU alternate."},{"id":"vertical-saas","layer":"apps","tier":"eu","name":"DATEV, Doctolib, Software AG, Visma","score":3,"tag":"Vertical SaaS where Europe quietly leads.","what":"DATEV (German tax/accounting), Doctolib (health booking, FR/DE), Software AG (integration), Visma (Nordic business software), Nemetschek (AEC), TeamViewer. Domain depth beats horizontal scale.","maturity":"Production","weak":"Fragmented; few break out beyond home markets. Ownership is drifting: Software AG's ARIS and Adabas & Natural businesses now sit under Silver Lake-owned Software GmbH (US control), and webMethods and StreamSets went to IBM: European by heritage, not by control.","axes":{"capability":"proven","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"european","substitutability":"hard"},"axes_note":"EU-domiciled domain leaders; the depth in each niche is real and not quickly rebuilt."},{"id":"ms365","layer":"apps","tier":"dependency","name":"Microsoft 365 / Google / Salesforce","score":1,"tag":"The installed base everyone is trying to leave.","what":"Microsoft 365, Google Workspace, Salesforce, ServiceNow and Adobe still own the European workplace and CRM by habit, integration and switching cost.","maturity":"Incumbent","weak":"US-owned, CLOUD Act exposed. The thing the whole sovereignty argument is reacting to.","axes":{"capability":"proven","jurisdiction":"extra_eu","op_control":"foreign","substitutability":"hard"},"axes_note":"US-owned, CLOUD Act exposed; European substitutes exist (openDesk, Euro-Office): costly but real, hence hard, not locked."},{"id":"mistral","layer":"ai","tier":"eu","name":"Mistral AI","score":4,"tag":"Europe's flagship AI lab, now building its own compute.","what":"French frontier-and-open-weight lab. Sep 2025 Series C of EUR 1.7bn led by ASML (EUR 1.3bn, ~11%) at ~EUR 11.7-14bn; reportedly raising again near EUR 20bn. Mistral Compute targets up to 200MW by 2027 for EU customers wanting non-US infrastructure.","maturity":"Scaling","weak":"Compute base still leans on Nvidia; capital depth far below US labs.","axes":{"capability":"credible","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"european","substitutability":"hard"},"axes_note":"French lab under EU-run operations; compute base leans on Nvidia (import spine) and capital depth trails US labs.","depends_on":["sys-dep"]},{"id":"sap-ai","layer":"ai","tier":"eu","name":"SAP Business AI / HANA","score":4,"tag":"AI wired into the systems enterprises already run.","what":"HANA (in-memory DB) and Business AI/Joule embed AI into ERP where the enterprise data already lives. Distribution is the moat Mistral lacks.","maturity":"Production","weak":"Runs increasingly on hyperscaler infra; sovereignty inherited from the cloud beneath.","axes":{"capability":"proven","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"shared","substitutability":"hard"},"axes_note":"Distribution moat inside the ERP; sovereignty of the hosted service is inherited from the cloud beneath.","depends_on":["hyperscalers"]},{"id":"suse","layer":"ai","tier":"eu","name":"SUSE","score":4,"tag":"The open control plane: Linux, Kubernetes, sovereign AI.","what":"German-rooted (EQT-owned), SUSE is Europe's open-source platform spine: SUSE Linux Enterprise, RKE2/Rancher Prime for Kubernetes, and a SUSE AI stack. Launch partner for the AWS European Sovereign Cloud, partnered with evroc, and signed a 25 June 2026 MoU with OpenChip to certify a sovereign RISC-V stack silicon-to-software. It even shipped a SEAL self-assessment tool.","maturity":"Production","weak":"The software is sovereign; the silicon underneath usually is not, and upstream open-source is global. Ownership is a watch item: EQT is reported to be exploring a sale at up to $6bn (Reuters, Mar 2026, early stage, no buyer named). A non-EU buyer would change the tier.","axes":{"capability":"proven","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"european","substitutability":"swappable"},"axes_note":"European-owned (EQT) open-source spine; upstream projects are global, and the silicon beneath usually is not European."},{"id":"aleph","layer":"ai","tier":"eu","name":"Aleph Alpha","score":4,"tag":"Pivoted from frontier models to sovereignty tooling.","what":"German lab (EUR ~500M raised) that stepped back from chasing frontier scale toward an orchestration/explainability platform for on-prem, regulated deployment, integrating open-source models.","maturity":"Repositioning","weak":"Being acquired by Canada's Cohere (announced Apr 2026, ~$6.8bn, Schwarz-anchored). As of 25 Jul 2026 the deal has NOT closed: it remains subject to shareholder and regulatory approval with no target close date, and no clearance or challenge is on record. Tier moves to imported dependency on close.","axes":{"capability":"credible","jurisdiction":"mixed","op_control":"european","substitutability":"hard"},"axes_note":"Cohere acquisition (announced Apr 2026, not closed) drifts ownership outside the EU: jurisdiction mixed until it closes, then re-grade."},{"id":"eu-models","layer":"ai","tier":"eu","name":"DeepL, Black Forest Labs, Kyutai, LightOn, H","score":3,"tag":"Specialist labs that punch above scale.","what":"DeepL (translation, DE), Black Forest Labs (image, DE), Kyutai (speech, FR), LightOn (enterprise, FR), H Company (agents, FR), Stability. Narrow excellence rather than one big chatbot.","maturity":"Production / scaling","weak":"Niche revenue; vulnerable to frontier labs absorbing the capability.","axes":{"capability":"credible","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"european","substitutability":"swappable"},"axes_note":"Narrow excellence across FR/DE labs; each niche has alternates. Frontier absorption is the risk, not lock-in."},{"id":"openeurollm","layer":"ai","tier":"eu","name":"OpenEuroLLM / EuroLLM","score":4,"tag":"Open multilingual models for all EU languages.","what":"EU-funded consortium (EUR ~37M; Silo AI, Aleph Alpha, LightOn, SURF, universities) building open models covering the EU's 24 languages. EuroLLM is the model line.","maturity":"In progress","weak":"Open weights and budget far below commercial frontier spend.","axes":{"capability":"emerging","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"european","substitutability":"swappable"},"axes_note":"EU-funded and open-weights by design; capability still building against frontier-scale budgets."},{"id":"silo-hf","layer":"ai","tier":"dependency","name":"Silo AI, Hugging Face (ownership flags)","score":2,"tag":"European-built, but the cap table isn't.","what":"Silo AI (Finland) is owned by AMD since 2024. Hugging Face was French-founded but is US-incorporated and US-VC-funded. European talent, non-European control.","maturity":"Active","weak":"Ownership and jurisdiction sit outside the EU. 'European' by heritage, not by control.","axes":{"capability":"proven","jurisdiction":"extra_eu","op_control":"foreign","substitutability":"hard"},"axes_note":"European heritage, non-European control (AMD owns Silo since 2024; Hugging Face is US-incorporated). The axes make the tier call visible."},{"id":"us-models","layer":"ai","tier":"dependency","name":"OpenAI / Anthropic / Google + CUDA","score":1,"tag":"The frontier and the toolchain Europe trains on.","what":"OpenAI, Anthropic and Google hold the frontier; Nvidia CUDA is the de-facto training/inference software moat under nearly everything, including European models.","maturity":"Incumbent","weak":"CUDA lock-in is the deepest dependency in the stack. And the jurisdictional kill switch is no longer theoretical: in June 2026 a US export-control directive took two deployed frontier models offline worldwide, cutting off every EU user for eighteen days.","axes":{"capability":"proven","jurisdiction":"extra_eu","op_control":"foreign","substitutability":"locked"},"axes_note":"Frontier weights have partial EU answers (Mistral); CUDA does not. Locked is the CUDA call, the software moat under the accelerator break."},{"id":"ovh","layer":"cloud","tier":"eu","name":"OVHcloud","score":5,"tag":"Europe's largest independent cloud. SEAL-3.","what":"French, listed, owns its datacentres and builds its own servers. Won a slice of the April 2026 EUR 180M EU sovereign-cloud award at SEAL-3. The closest thing Europe has to a hyperscaler alternative.","maturity":"Production","weak":"Service breadth and managed-AI catalogue trail AWS/Azure.","axes":{"capability":"proven","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"european","substitutability":"swappable"},"axes_note":"Listed French operator that owns its datacentres and builds its own servers; SEAL-3 awardee: the reference EU-owned cloud."},{"id":"scaleway","layer":"cloud","tier":"eu","name":"Scaleway","score":5,"tag":"Iliad's cloud, strong on EU GPU capacity. SEAL-3.","what":"French (Iliad group), aggressive on sovereign AI compute with Nvidia GPU clusters in EU datacentres. Also in the EU sovereign-cloud award.","maturity":"Production","weak":"GPU fleet is Nvidia; sovereign operations, imported silicon.","axes":{"capability":"proven","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"european","substitutability":"swappable"},"axes_note":"French (Iliad); sovereign operations over an imported Nvidia GPU fleet (import spine).","depends_on":["sys-dep"]},{"id":"eu-cloud2","layer":"cloud","tier":"eu","name":"IONOS, StackIT, Open Telekom Cloud","score":4,"tag":"The German sovereign-cloud bench.","what":"IONOS (United Internet), StackIT (Schwarz Group, SEAL-3 awardee) and Deutsche Telekom's Open Telekom Cloud give Germany credible EU-owned IaaS with C5/BSI assurance.","maturity":"Production","weak":"Mostly infrastructure; thinner on higher-level managed services.","axes":{"capability":"proven","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"european","substitutability":"swappable"},"axes_note":"German EU-owned IaaS with C5/BSI assurance; breadth thinner than the hyperscalers."},{"id":"eu-cloud3","layer":"cloud","tier":"eu","name":"Aruba, Exoscale, UpCloud, Elastx","score":3,"tag":"National champions across the rest of Europe.","what":"Aruba (Italy), Exoscale (Swiss/EU), UpCloud (Finland), Elastx (Sweden). Smaller, regional, genuinely independent providers for data-residency-sensitive workloads.","maturity":"Production","weak":"Scale and breadth; fine for targeted workloads, not whole-estate migration.","axes":{"capability":"proven","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"european","substitutability":"swappable"},"axes_note":"Regional independents (Exoscale is Swiss, same perimeter nuance as Proton); fine for targeted workloads."},{"id":"mistral-compute","layer":"cloud","tier":"eu","name":"Mistral Compute","score":4,"tag":"A lab building sovereign GPU capacity for others.","what":"Mistral's compute arm, targeting up to 200MW by 2027, explicitly for EU governments and enterprises wanting AI capacity not governed by US infrastructure.","maturity":"Building","weak":"GPUs are Nvidia; sovereignty is in operation and jurisdiction, not silicon.","axes":{"capability":"emerging","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"european","substitutability":"swappable"},"axes_note":"Building toward 200MW by 2027; the jurisdiction is the product, the silicon is Nvidia (import spine).","depends_on":["sys-dep"]},{"id":"evroc","layer":"cloud","tier":"eu","name":"evroc","score":4,"tag":"Sweden's attempt at a true sovereign hyperscaler.","what":"Stockholm startup (founded 2022) building what it calls Europe's first sovereign hyperscale cloud: eight datacentres plus three dev hubs by 2028. The cloud platform has been live since July 2025; the sovereign AI platform (evroc Think) and the 'roc' agent reached general availability June 2026. Runs SUSE Linux and Rancher.","maturity":"Launching 2026","weak":"Tiny next to AWS/Azure; capital depth and scale are the open question.","axes":{"capability":"emerging","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"european","substitutability":"swappable"},"axes_note":"Stockholm hyperscale bid, platform live July 2026; capital depth and scale are the open question."},{"id":"aws-esc","layer":"cloud","tier":"operated","name":"AWS European Sovereign Cloud","score":3,"tag":"GA Jan 2026, Brandenburg. EU-controlled entity.","what":"Generally available 15 Jan 2026 in Brandenburg, physically and logically separate from other AWS regions, run by EU-resident staff under an EU-controlled legal structure; 90+ services; EUR 7.8bn pledged to 2040. Belgium, the Netherlands and Portugal are announced as sovereign Local Zones, not regions, with no live date published. Runs on leased colocation at launch; own datacentres come later.","maturity":"GA 2026","weak":"Parent is Amazon (US). Independent governance reduces but does not erase CLOUD Act and ownership questions.","axes":{"capability":"proven","jurisdiction":"mixed","op_control":"shared","substitutability":"hard"},"axes_note":"The operated tier in axis form: EU-resident staffing and legal structure under a US parent. Shared control, mixed jurisdiction.","depends_on":["hyperscalers"]},{"id":"ms-clouds","layer":"cloud","tier":"operated","name":"Bleu (FR) / Delos (DE)","score":3,"tag":"Microsoft Azure behind a French/German legal wall.","what":"Bleu (Capgemini + Orange + Microsoft) targets ANSSI SecNumCloud in France. Delos Cloud (SAP/Arvato + Microsoft) targets BSI for German public sector. SAP's RISE will run on both.","maturity":"Ramping 2025-26","weak":"Azure technology and Microsoft IP underneath. Local operator, foreign control plane.","axes":{"capability":"credible","jurisdiction":"mixed","op_control":"shared","substitutability":"hard"},"axes_note":"Azure technology and Microsoft IP underneath a local operator: shared control by design.","depends_on":["hyperscalers"]},{"id":"s3ns","layer":"cloud","tier":"operated","name":"S3NS (Thales x Google)","score":3,"tag":"SecNumCloud 3.2 qualified (Dec 2025).","what":"Thales-Google JV; passed SecNumCloud 3.2 in Dec 2025, the strongest French qualification among the operated tier. SAP available on it H2 2026; part of a Proximus-led EU award.","maturity":"Qualified 2025","weak":"Google Cloud tech underneath; Thales controls operation and keys.","axes":{"capability":"credible","jurisdiction":"mixed","op_control":"shared","substitutability":"hard"},"axes_note":"SecNumCloud 3.2 with Thales holding operation and keys; Google technology beneath keeps control shared, not European.","depends_on":["hyperscalers"]},{"id":"hyperscalers","layer":"cloud","tier":"dependency","name":"AWS / Azure / GCP (standard) + VMware","score":1,"tag":"The default, and the Broadcom tax.","what":"Ordinary hyperscaler regions still run most European enterprise workloads. Broadcom's VMware repricing (a EUR 500k bill becoming ~EUR 2M, then +10-20%/yr) earned a CISPE 'red alert' and an EU complaint, turning lock-in into a live sovereignty argument.","maturity":"Incumbent","weak":"US-owned control plane + CLOUD Act + escalating lock-in cost.","axes":{"capability":"proven","jurisdiction":"extra_eu","op_control":"foreign","substitutability":"hard"},"axes_note":"US control plane, CLOUD Act, and VMware-style repricing; substitutes exist per workload; whole-estate exit is the hard part."},{"id":"jupiter","layer":"dc","tier":"eu","name":"EuroHPC supercomputers (JUPITER)","score":4,"tag":"Europe's exascale machine, in Julich.","what":"JUPITER at Forschungszentrum Julich is Europe's first exascale system. The Nvidia Grace-Hopper Booster partition is live and ranked 5th on the June 2026 Top500. The SiPearl Rhea1 CPU cluster is not yet deployed: the silicon is in bring-up with availability targeted end-2026, and European CPU content was cut from more than 1,300 nodes to 162 Rhea1 nodes, with 582 dual-socket AMD nodes installed instead.","maturity":"Booster live; CPU cluster pending","weak":"The AI/GPU partition is Nvidia Grace-Hopper and the European CPU share shrank during delivery. End-2026 full readiness is at risk.","axes":{"capability":"credible","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"european","substitutability":"hard"},"axes_note":"EuroHPC flagship standing up 2026: European CPU (Rhea1), Nvidia GPU partition (import spine).","depends_on":["sys-dep"]},{"id":"dc-ops","layer":"dc","tier":"eu","name":"EU datacentre operators","score":4,"tag":"Schwarz, Deutsche Telekom, EcoDataCenter, Data4.","what":"Schwarz/StackIT, Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telefonica, EcoDataCenter (Sweden, low-carbon) and OVH run European-owned, European-sited capacity with renewable and locality stories. Data4 is French-operated but Brookfield (Canada) owned since 2023: siting is not ownership. The DT/Schwarz AI datacentre remains announced talks, with no binding agreement.","maturity":"Production","weak":"Power, land and grid connections are now the binding constraint.","axes":{"capability":"proven","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"european","substitutability":"swappable"},"axes_note":"European-owned, European-sited capacity across multiple operators; power and grid, not control, are the binding constraint."},{"id":"gigafactory","layer":"dc","tier":"eu","name":"AI Gigafactories (InvestAI)","score":3,"tag":"Up to 5 mega-sites, EUR 20bn, call summer 2026.","what":"InvestAI's EUR 20bn fund backs up to 5 AI Gigafactories of 100k+ accelerators each; 77 proposals across 16 member states and 60 sites; official EuroHPC call expected summer 2026.","maturity":"Pre-procurement","weak":"Accelerators will be overwhelmingly Nvidia. Scale, not silicon sovereignty.","axes":{"capability":"emerging","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"european","substitutability":null},"axes_note":"Pre-procurement instrument; the accelerators it will buy are the import, not the instrument itself.","depends_on":["sys-dep"]},{"id":"connectivity","layer":"dc","tier":"eu","name":"Connectivity & subsea","score":3,"tag":"Telcos and cables: the quiet sovereignty layer.","what":"Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telefonica and Nordic operators plus EU subsea-cable initiatives carry the traffic. Routing and landing-station control is an under-discussed sovereignty surface.","maturity":"Production","weak":"Equipment and some routing still depend on non-EU vendors.","axes":{"capability":"proven","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"european","substitutability":"hard"},"axes_note":"European carriage with a non-EU equipment share; landing-station control is the quiet sovereignty surface."},{"id":"eviden","layer":"systems","tier":"eu","name":"Bull (French State)","score":5,"tag":"Europe's supercomputer factory, now state-owned.","what":"Builds BullSequana HPC systems and integrates Europe's exascale machines (JUPITER, and the AMD+SiPearl Alice Recoque). The French State completed its purchase of Bull's Advanced Computing activities from Atos on 31 Mar 2026 for up to EUR 404M: 100% state-owned, CEO Emmanuel Le Roux, and Europe's only supercomputer manufacturing plant, in Angers, is now sovereign-owned. Delivered Roihu, Finland's national supercomputer, in May 2026.","maturity":"Production","weak":"The European layer is integration and the box; the accelerators inside are still Nvidia or AMD. Angers capacity is being scaled through a partnership with Taiwan's Foxconn (initial investment above EUR 120M): sovereign ownership, imported manufacturing capability.","axes":{"capability":"proven","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"european","substitutability":"locked"},"axes_note":"Sovereign-owned since 2026 (French State, up to EUR 404M); Europe's only supercomputer plant: sole-source, hence locked.","depends_on":["sys-dep"]},{"id":"sys-builders","layer":"systems","tier":"eu","name":"2CRSi, Eclairion, integrators","score":3,"tag":"Systems and high-density / immersion builders.","what":"2CRSi (servers, France), Eclairion (high-density AI datacentre builds), E4 Computer Engineering (Italy, prime contractor on the EUR 80M MeluXina-AI EuroHPC award) and regional integrators turn silicon into operable capacity. 2CRSi posted FY2025/26 revenue of EUR 416.2M, up 88%.","maturity":"Production","weak":"Component supply (GPUs, advanced parts) is imported: these are integrators, not silicon vendors. Scaling fast carries execution and working-capital risk.","axes":{"capability":"credible","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"european","substitutability":"swappable"},"axes_note":"European integration capacity across several players; the components integrated are imported (import spine).","depends_on":["sys-dep"]},{"id":"networking","layer":"systems","tier":"eu","name":"Nokia / Ericsson","score":4,"tag":"The telecom-gear sovereignty Europe already has.","what":"Nokia (Finland) and Ericsson (Sweden) are two of the three global RAN/core vendors. Real, deep European hardware sovereignty in carrier networking, often overlooked in the cloud debate.","maturity":"Production","weak":"Silicon inside still draws on non-EU fabs and IP. Nokia's new AI-native RAN platform is built on Nvidia and Marvell silicon, and Nokia has agreed to acquire a US wafer fab (NXP's Chandler, Arizona site) for optics: the European layer is the system, not the chip.","axes":{"capability":"proven","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"european","substitutability":"hard"},"axes_note":"Two of the three global RAN vendors are European: deep and real; the silicon inside draws on non-EU fabs and IP."},{"id":"sys-dep","layer":"systems","tier":"dependency","name":"Nvidia DGX / Dell / HPE / Supermicro","score":1,"tag":"The AI systems Europe actually buys.","what":"Nvidia DGX/HGX and US OEMs (Dell, HPE, Supermicro) dominate AI server reality. Even European-operated AI capacity is mostly built from these.","maturity":"Incumbent","weak":"The accelerator and reference design are non-European.","axes":{"capability":"proven","jurisdiction":"extra_eu","op_control":"foreign","substitutability":"locked"},"axes_note":"The AI-server import: the accelerator inside is one of the map's two hard breaks. No European substitute at datacentre class.","depends_on":["nvidia-cuda"]},{"id":"sipearl","layer":"design","tier":"eu","name":"SiPearl (Rhea1)","score":3,"tag":"Europe's HPC CPU. Powered on, in bring-up.","what":"French. Rhea1 taped out (TSMC N6, 80 Arm Neoverse V1 cores) and powered on 13 May 2026, now in a bring-up and functional-validation phase with availability targeted end-2026. Headed into JUPITER's CPU cluster. EUR 130M Series A; Series B not announced as closed. Named in the EUR 290M IT4LIA AI Factory contract (Bologna, 22 Apr 2026), whose inference partition pairs SiPearl CPUs with Axelera accelerators: the one published European system configuration that is not all-Nvidia.","maturity":"Bring-up 2026","weak":"Arm ISA (not EU) + TSMC manufacturing. European design, borrowed foundations.","axes":{"capability":"emerging","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"european","substitutability":"hard"},"axes_note":"Rhea1 powered on May 2026, sampling; Arm ISA and TSMC manufacturing are the borrowed foundations (import spine).","depends_on":["leading-edge-fabs","arm"],"roadmap":{"claim":"Rhea1 sampling, then JUPITER's CPU cluster","year":2026,"source":"heise","url":"https://www.heise.de/en/news/Europe-s-most-complex-server-processor-is-running-11308863.html"}},{"id":"openchip","layer":"design","tier":"eu","name":"OpenChip (RISC-V, DARE)","score":4,"tag":"Barcelona's open-ISA bet for HPC-AI.","what":"Leads the RISC-V vector-accelerator chiplet (VEC) in EuroHPC's DARE project (EUR 240M, BSC-coordinated, 38 partners). RISC-V gives architectural control Arm cannot.","maturity":"Build-out","weak":"Early: design wins, packaging, compilers and software maturity all still to prove. First silicon is published rather than inferred: Openchip announced BER10 on 30 July 2026, a Linux-capable 64-bit RISC-V processor on a sub-2nm Gate-All-Around process, stating tape-out in 2025 and silicon in hand. No volume-production date, named customer or independent benchmark has been published, and the data-centre accelerator the DARE work points at is still to come. Ownership: Spain's Council of Ministers approved a SETT investment of over EUR 115m on 29 June 2026.","axes":{"capability":"emerging","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"european","substitutability":"hard"},"axes_note":"DARE VEC-chiplet lead; RISC-V gives ISA control the Arm route cannot; first silicon published July 2026, the data-centre accelerator still to come.","roadmap":{"claim":"VEC vector chiplet tape-out within DARE SGA1's three-year run (TSMC 7nm or below)","year":2028,"source":"eeNews Europe","url":"https://www.eenewseurope.com/en/e240m-dare-project-for-ai-risc-v-chiplets/"}},{"id":"dare-chiplets","layer":"design","tier":"eu","name":"Axelera, Codasip (DARE chiplets)","score":3,"tag":"The other two DARE RISC-V chiplets.","what":"Axelera AI leads the AI-inference chiplet (Titania; EUR 61.6M DARE grant) from edge to server class; Codasip leads the general-purpose RISC-V processor. Inference at the edge is a plausible European beachhead. First procurement evidence landed on 22 Apr 2026: the EUR 290M IT4LIA AI Factory contract in Bologna carries a dedicated inference partition on Axelera accelerators alongside SiPearl CPUs. EuroHPC buying European silicon, not only funding it. The release names the company, not the DARE chiplet, so do not read it as a Titania order.","maturity":"Development","weak":"Datacentre-class parts are years from volume; software ecosystem nascent. Consortium risk: Codasip divested its low-end RISC-V processor business to an unnamed public US semiconductor company on 8 Apr 2026 and pivoted to CHERI. DARE states all project activities continue as planned and it is in dialogue with Codasip and EuroHPC JU; no replacement has been named.","axes":{"capability":"emerging","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"european","substitutability":"hard"},"axes_note":"Titania and the DARE general-purpose part are in development; edge inference is the plausible beachhead, datacentre class is years out.","roadmap":{"claim":"First Titania-powered systems","year":2027,"source":"Axelera AI","url":"https://community.axelera.ai/product-updates/the-future-of-ai-inference-introducing-titania-133"}},{"id":"riscv-others","layer":"design","tier":"eu","name":"Quintauris, Semidynamics, VSORA","score":3,"tag":"The wider RISC-V and accelerator field.","what":"Quintauris (Bosch/Infineon/Nordic/NXP/Qualcomm automotive RISC-V JV, STMicro sixth shareholder), Semidynamics (RISC-V cores, strategic investment from SK hynix Apr 2026, amount undisclosed), VSORA and GreenWaves (edge AI). VSORA's Jotunn8 datacentre inference accelerator taped out in 2025 and, in VSORA's own words on 18 Jun 2026, 'is entering manufacturing': no silicon back, no samples, no deployment. Scaleway has committed to be the first production deployment.","maturity":"Mixed; nothing at volume","weak":"Fragmentation; no design wins at volume yet. The Jotunn8 commitment is forward-looking: an agreement to deploy the first chips VSORA produces, with no date, no volume and no named end customer.","axes":{"capability":"emerging","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"european","substitutability":"hard"},"axes_note":"A real but fragmented contender field; few volume design wins yet.","roadmap":{"claim":"Jotunn8 volume production (taped out Oct 2025, TSMC 5nm)","year":2026,"source":"VSORA","url":"https://vsora.com/vsora-announces-tape-out-of-game-changing-inference-chip-putting-europe-at-the-forefront-of-data-center-ai/"}},{"id":"euclyd","layer":"design","tier":"eu","name":"Euclyd (CRAFTWERK)","score":2,"tag":"Europe's newest accelerator bet still leaves Europe to get made.","what":"Dutch (Eindhoven) AI-inference silicon startup, founded 2024 by ex-ASML director Bernardo Kastrup. CRAFTWERK is a European-designed inference SiP aimed squarely at the Nvidia gap; a multi-chiplet system is targeted for 2028, and the company is seeking a raise of at least EUR 100M (backers include ex-ASML CEO Peter Wennink).","maturity":"Prototype","weak":"Unproven at scale; efficiency claims not independently validated. Design is European, manufacturing is not: implemented by Korea's ADTechnology (a Samsung Foundry Design Solution Partner) on Samsung FinFET. Not in the EU DARE consortia.","axes":{"capability":"emerging","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"european","substitutability":"hard"},"axes_note":"Prototype-stage Dutch design; fabrication sits with ADTechnology on Samsung Foundry FinFET (Nov 2025): European design, imported manufacturing.","depends_on":["leading-edge-fabs"],"roadmap":{"claim":"Multi-chiplet CRAFTWERK system targeted","year":2028,"source":"CNBC","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/17/nvidia-rivals-chip-market-funding-ai-asml-euclyd.html"}},{"id":"quantum","layer":"design","tier":"eu","name":"Quantum: IQM, Pasqal, Alice&Bob","score":4,"tag":"Where Europe is genuinely at the front.","what":"IQM (Finland) delivering Radiance systems into LRZ's Euro-Q-Exa (54-qubit done, 150-qubit by end-2026); Pasqal (France) delivered a 140-qubit neutral-atom system to CINECA; Alice&Bob in France's EUR 500M PROQCIMA fault-tolerance programme.","maturity":"Deploying","weak":"Pre-advantage; real workloads still limited. But the lead is real.","axes":{"capability":"credible","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"european","substitutability":"swappable"},"axes_note":"Delivered systems (LRZ, CINECA) and multiple European vendors: rare depth, still pre-advantage."},{"id":"photonics","layer":"design","tier":"eu","name":"Q.ANT (photonic) + analog","score":3,"tag":"A different computing substrate Europe can own.","what":"Q.ANT (Germany) builds photonic processors for energy-efficient compute, a lane where the incumbents have no lock-in. Part of Europe's 'win on the next substrate' bet.","maturity":"Early","weak":"Unproven at scale; niche software ecosystem.","axes":{"capability":"emerging","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"european","substitutability":"hard"},"axes_note":"Early-stage bet on a substrate without incumbents; effectively sole-source in Europe today."},{"id":"asml","layer":"fab","tier":"eu","name":"ASML (the European chokepoint)","score":5,"tag":"Europe's real silicon power: nobody makes leading chips without it.","what":"Dutch. ASML's EUV lithography is a global monopoly: TSMC, Samsung and Intel all depend on it. Q2 2026 net sales EUR 9.3bn and net income EUR 2.9bn; FY2026 guidance raised to EUR 43-45bn on 15 Jul 2026. First High-NA EUV high-volume Logic product confirmed at Intel Foundry the same day. Europe's single strongest semiconductor lever, and a EUR 1.3bn investor in Mistral.","maturity":"Production","weak":"Sells to the world incl. non-EU fabs; leverage, not a finished sovereign chip.","axes":{"capability":"proven","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"european","substitutability":"locked"},"axes_note":"EUV is a global monopoly, irreplaceable full stop: Europe's chokepoint leverage, and a sole-source concentration."},{"id":"foundry","layer":"fab","tier":"eu","name":"Fabs: ESMC Dresden, GlobalFoundries, STMicro","score":2,"tag":"Manufacturing: the gap the Chips Act is chasing.","what":"TSMC's ESMC and GlobalFoundries in Dresden, plus Infineon, STMicro and Bosch, build mature/automotive nodes. Infineon opened its EUR 5bn Smart Power Fab in Dresden on 2 Jul 2026, alongside a separate EUR 920M German state grant. ESMC Dresden is not yet in equipment move-in: ESMC states tool-in expected 2027, with the ramp schedule tied to customer demand. Intel's Magdeburg leading-edge fab was shelved, so leading-edge logic stays in Asia.","maturity":"Building; leading edge still absent","weak":"No leading-edge (sub-5nm) logic manufacturing in Europe. The hardest gap to close.","axes":{"capability":"credible","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"european","substitutability":"hard"},"axes_note":"Mature and automotive nodes are real; sub-5nm logic does not exist in Europe: the second hard break lives here."},{"id":"arm","layer":"design","tier":"dependency","name":"Arm (ISA licensing)","score":2,"tag":"Europe's CPUs are designed on an ISA licensed from outside the EU.","what":"The dominant CPU instruction-set architecture. Born in Cambridge, but SoftBank-owned and Nasdaq-listed since 2023 (SoftBank ~90%). Almost every European CPU effort licenses it: SiPearl's Rhea1 runs 80 Arm Neoverse V1 cores. March 2026: Arm shipped its first in-house chip in 35 years, now competing with the licensees it used to only sell to. RISC-V (OpenChip, Codasip, Quintauris) is the sovereignty hedge against exactly this ISA-licensing dependency.","maturity":"Incumbent","weak":"European heritage, non-European control: the ISA and its licensing terms sit with SoftBank and US markets, not the EU. Licensable and shippable (SiPearl proves it), so a dependency, not one of the map's two hard breaks.","axes":{"capability":"proven","jurisdiction":"extra_eu","op_control":"foreign","substitutability":"hard"},"axes_note":"SoftBank-owned ISA: licensable and shippable (SiPearl proves it): hard, not locked; RISC-V is the hedge."},{"id":"nvidia-cuda","layer":"design","tier":"dependency","name":"Nvidia + CUDA","score":1,"tag":"The AI accelerator, and the software moat under everything.","what":"Nvidia's GPUs are the de-facto AI compute substrate and CUDA is the software moat under nearly every stack, European models included. One of the map's two hard breaks: no European accelerator at production scale.","maturity":"Incumbent","weak":"Locked in by software as much as silicon: CUDA, not the GPU, is the hardest part to substitute.","axes":{"capability":"proven","jurisdiction":"extra_eu","op_control":"foreign","substitutability":"locked"},"axes_note":"One of the two hard breaks: the accelerator and its CUDA moat have no European substitute at datacentre scale.","depends_on":["leading-edge-fabs"]},{"id":"x86","layer":"design","tier":"dependency","name":"Intel / AMD x86","score":2,"tag":"The default server ISA: borrowed, but substitutable.","what":"Intel and AMD's x86 runs most European server estates and clouds. A real dependency, but not a break: Arm and RISC-V server alternatives exist and ship.","maturity":"Incumbent","weak":"Ubiquity: the installed base and software assumptions keep x86 sticky even where alternatives exist.","axes":{"capability":"proven","jurisdiction":"extra_eu","op_control":"foreign","substitutability":"hard"},"axes_note":"A dependency, not a break: Arm-based and RISC-V server silicon ship today, so substitution is hard, not locked."},{"id":"leading-edge-fabs","layer":"fab","tier":"dependency","name":"Leading-edge fabs (TSMC, Samsung)","score":1,"tag":"Every advanced European chip leaves Europe to be made.","what":"TSMC (Taiwan) and Samsung (Korea) manufacture the advanced logic. Europe's chip designs (SiPearl on TSMC N6, Euclyd on Samsung FinFET) all leave the continent for fabrication. The second hard break.","maturity":"Incumbent","weak":"No leading-edge (sub-5nm) logic manufacturing exists in Europe; Intel's Magdeburg fab was shelved. The hardest gap to close.","axes":{"capability":"proven","jurisdiction":"extra_eu","op_control":"foreign","substitutability":"locked"},"axes_note":"The second hard break: leading-edge fabrication has no European answer on any near horizon."},{"id":"siemens-eda","layer":"design","tier":"eu","name":"Siemens EDA","score":4,"tag":"Europe owns a chip-design chokepoint.","what":"Electronic Design Automation is the software without which no chip is designed, and the world's number three EDA vendor is wholly owned by Siemens AG of Germany, acquired as Mentor Graphics in 2017. Its Calibre physical-verification tool is foundry-mandated for signoff. In May 2026 Siemens signed a strategic framework agreement with the European Chips Joint Undertaking to supply EDA software to smaller companies, startups and research institutions at pre-defined pricing through the EuroCDP project, the first software provider to do so.","maturity":"Production","weak":"Strong in verification, absent in implementation. Synthesis, place-and-route and timing signoff remain US-owned, so a European design still cannot reach tape-out on European tools alone.","axes":{"capability":"proven","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"european","substitutability":"locked"},"axes_note":"German-owned and EU-jurisdiction, but Calibre's foundry-mandated position is a concentration: Europe holds the chokepoint rather than a substitutable option."},{"id":"eda-dep","layer":"design","tier":"dependency","name":"Synopsys / Cadence (EDA)","score":1,"tag":"No European chip reaches tape-out without it.","what":"Synopsys and Cadence, both US-incorporated, dominate logic synthesis, place-and-route and timing signoff. Every European chip design (SiPearl, OpenChip, Axelera, Euclyd) runs through this toolchain, which sits under US export-control jurisdiction. The 2025 US export-licence episode covering EDA sales to China demonstrated the lever.","maturity":"Incumbent","weak":"A quieter dependency than the GPU and the fab, and arguably an earlier one: it binds at design time, before any silicon exists. No European alternative exists below Siemens EDA: Silvaco is US-listed, and open-source EDA in Europe is still funding calls rather than product.","axes":{"capability":"proven","jurisdiction":"extra_eu","op_control":"foreign","substitutability":"locked"},"axes_note":"Locked at design time, before any silicon exists: Siemens EDA covers verification but not synthesis, place-and-route or timing signoff, so no design reaches tape-out on European tools alone."},{"id":"memory-dep","layer":"fab","tier":"dependency","name":"DRAM / HBM / NAND","score":1,"tag":"Europe has made no volume DRAM since 2009.","what":"Every AI factory and sovereign cloud in Europe runs on memory made entirely outside it. Europe has produced no volume DRAM since Qimonda's insolvency in January 2009 ended Dresden production, and has no NAND and no HBM manufacturing at all. Supply sits with three Asian and US producers.","maturity":"Incumbent","weak":"High-bandwidth memory is arguably a tighter constraint on AI compute than logic, and it is the one dependency with no European programme behind it: no pilot line, no consortium, no announced fab.","axes":{"capability":"proven","jurisdiction":"extra_eu","op_control":"foreign","substitutability":"locked"},"axes_note":"Complete external dependency with no European production and no announced route back."},{"id":"packaging","layer":"fab","tier":"eu","name":"Advanced packaging (APECS)","score":3,"tag":"The chiplet strategy needs a packaging line.","what":"Europe's chiplet bets (OpenChip's vector accelerator, Axelera's inference chiplet, Euclyd's multi-chiplet system) all depend on advanced packaging. The APECS pilot line, coordinated by Fraunhofer with EUR 730M co-funded by the Chips Joint Undertaking and eight member states, runs from November 2024 to June 2029.","maturity":"Pilot line, 2024-2029","weak":"A pilot line is capability, not capacity. Europe has essentially no volume outsourced assembly and test, so chiplets designed here are still packaged elsewhere.","axes":{"capability":"emerging","jurisdiction":"eu","op_control":"european","substitutability":"hard"},"axes_note":"Publicly funded European capability being built; volume packaging capacity does not yet exist on the continent."}],"PARTNERS":[{"a":"openchip","b":"suse","label":"MoU: sovereign RISC-V + SUSE stack","year":2026,"src":"SUSE","url":"https://www.suse.com/news/suse-and-openchip-partner-to-develop-sovereign-european-risc-v-hardware-and-open-source-software-stack/","type":"partner"},{"a":"suse","b":"evroc","label":"Rancher on evroc cloud","year":2025,"src":"SUSE","url":"https://www.suse.com/news/suse-and-evroc-announce-strategic-partnership-to-deliver-sovereign-european-cloud-solutions/","type":"deploy"},{"a":"suse","b":"aws-esc","label":"SLES launch 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Commission","url":"https://commission.europa.eu/news-and-media/news/commission-advances-cloud-sovereignty-through-strategic-procurement-2026-04-17_en"},{"a":"seal","b":"eu-cloud2","label":"StackIT selected in the EUR 180M tender","year":2026,"type":"award","src":"European Commission","url":"https://commission.europa.eu/news-and-media/news/commission-advances-cloud-sovereignty-through-strategic-procurement-2026-04-17_en"},{"a":"techpack","b":"certs","label":"CADA defines cloud + AI assurance levels","year":2026,"type":"policy","src":"European Commission","url":"https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/policies/cloud-and-ai-development-act"},{"a":"hyperscalers","b":"certs","label":"Broadcom/VMware: the substitutability + kill-switch case","year":2026,"type":"risk","src":"CISPE","url":"https://www.cispe.cloud/broadcom-is-not-sovereign/"},{"a":"factories","b":"sys-dep","label":"Nvidia says it powers 90% of Europe's AI-factory buildout","year":2026,"type":"dependency","src":"NVIDIA","url":"https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/europe-ai-infrastructure"},{"a":"sipearl","b":"leading-edge-fabs","label":"Rhea1 fabbed at TSMC (imported foundry)","year":2026,"type":"dependency","src":"SiPearl","url":"https://sipearl.com/rhea1"},{"a":"sipearl","b":"arm","label":"Rhea1's 80 cores are Arm Neoverse V1 (licensed ISA)","year":2026,"type":"dependency","src":"SiPearl","url":"https://sipearl.com/rhea1"},{"a":"openeurollm","b":"jupiter","label":"Open EU models need EuroHPC-scale compute","year":2025,"type":"deploy","src":"EuroHPC JU","url":"https://www.eurohpc-ju.europa.eu/jupiter-launching-europes-exascale-era-2025-09-05_en"},{"a":"scaleway","b":"sys-dep","label":"GPU fleet is Nvidia (H100/B300)","year":2026,"type":"dependency","src":"Scaleway","url":"https://www.scaleway.com/en/gpu-instances/"},{"a":"mistral-compute","b":"sys-dep","label":"Essonne cluster is 13,800 Nvidia GB300 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EuroStack as an industrial 'Buy European' procurement project","source":"Cristina Caffarra","url":"https://cristinacaffarra.blog/2026/01/02/again-eurostack-is-an-industrial-project/"},"certs":{"date":"2026-06-03","headline":"CADA proposes four Union cloud sovereignty levels, and puts hardware outside their scope","source":"EUR-Lex","url":"https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-10104-2026-ADD-1/en/pdf"},"euclyd":{"date":"2026-06-24","headline":"Euclyd is reported to be seeking EUR 200m, double its original target; round not closed","source":"Bloomberg","url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-24/chip-startup-backed-by-ex-asml-ceo-seeks-to-raise-200-million"},"nvidia-cuda":{"date":"2026-06-22","headline":"Nvidia anchors a record 35 new European AI supercomputers: the dependency, visualised","source":"NVIDIA","url":"https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/europe-unveils-a-record-35-new-nvidia-ai-supercomputers"},"us-models":{"date":"2026-06-13","headline":"A US export 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JU","source":"Siemens","url":"https://news.siemens.com/en-us/siemens-chipju-software-framework/"},"eda-dep":{"date":"2026-05-12","headline":"The Chips JU has to buy EDA access for European startups: the tools are not European","source":"Siemens","url":"https://news.siemens.com/en-us/siemens-chipju-software-framework/"},"memory-dep":{"date":"2026-06-03","headline":"Chips Act 2.0 names third-country supplier dependency; memory has no European programme at all","source":"European Commission","url":"https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/library/proposal-chips-act-20"},"packaging":{"date":"2026-06-03","headline":"Chips Act 2.0 keeps advanced packaging in scope; APECS remains a pilot line, not capacity","source":"European Commission","url":"https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/library/proposal-chips-act-20"}},"GOALS":[{"id":"workplace","name":"Sovereign workplace","verdict":"Buildable in Europe today: sovereign at the layers that matter (apps, cloud, operations). The servers underneath run commodity x86 like almost everything; that is not the chokepoint.","needs":[{"label":"Workplace & office","cand":["opendesk","office"],"proven":[]},{"label":"Cloud","cand":["ovh","scaleway","eu-cloud2","eu-cloud3","evroc"],"proven":[]},{"label":"Datacentre","cand":["dc-ops"],"proven":[]},{"label":"Systems","cand":["eviden","sys-builders"],"proven":[]}],"breaks":[],"question":"Can Europe run a sovereign workplace?"},{"id":"cloud","name":"Sovereign cloud (a bank)","verdict":"Achievable: SEAL-3 European clouds exist; the work is leaving VMware. They run on commodity x86, not European silicon, but that is not the sovereignty break.","needs":[{"label":"Business apps","cand":["sap"],"proven":[]},{"label":"Cloud platform","cand":["ovh","scaleway","eu-cloud2","eu-cloud3"],"proven":[]},{"label":"Datacentre","cand":["dc-ops"],"proven":[]},{"label":"Systems","cand":["eviden"],"proven":[]}],"breaks":[],"question":"Can a bank run on a sovereign European cloud?"},{"id":"llm","name":"Sovereign LLM","verdict":"Breaks at compute: European model and cloud, but no European GPU and no leading-edge fab.","needs":[{"label":"Model","cand":["mistral","aleph","openeurollm","sap-ai"],"proven":[]},{"label":"AI platform","cand":["suse"],"proven":[]},{"label":"Cloud / compute","cand":["scaleway","mistral-compute","ovh","evroc"],"proven":[]}],"breaks":[{"label":"AI accelerator (GPU)","node":"nvidia-cuda","why":"no European GPU at scale: Nvidia"},{"label":"Leading-edge fab","node":"leading-edge-fabs","why":"sub-5nm logic is TSMC"}],"question":"Can Europe build its own AI, end to end?"},{"id":"super","name":"National supercomputer","verdict":"Mostly European (Bull builds it, SiPearl is the CPU), but the accelerators and the fab are imported.","needs":[{"label":"System integrator","cand":["eviden"],"proven":[]},{"label":"HPC CPU","cand":["sipearl"],"proven":[]},{"label":"Datacentre","cand":["jupiter","dc-ops"],"proven":[]},{"label":"Quantum (optional)","cand":["quantum"],"proven":[]}],"breaks":[{"label":"AI accelerator","node":"nvidia-cuda","why":"Nvidia GPUs"},{"label":"Leading-edge fab","node":"leading-edge-fabs","why":"TSMC"}],"question":"Can Europe build a national supercomputer?"},{"id":"chip","name":"Sovereign AI chip (design)","question":"Can Europe design its own AI chip?","verdict":"Design, yes: several credible European bets, none shipping at scale yet. Manufacture, no: every design leaves Europe for the fab.","needs":[{"label":"Chip design & IP","cand":["openchip","dare-chiplets","euclyd","riscv-others","sipearl"],"proven":[]}],"breaks":[{"label":"Leading-edge fab","node":"leading-edge-fabs","why":"no leading-edge logic manufacturing in Europe"}]}]}